USD/JPY presses 161.845 resistance as uptrend stays intact

USD/JPY is knocking on the door of 161.845 resistance with the trend stack fully aligned and clean air above if the level gives way.

The pair has added incrementally on the day and trades near the top of its 161.5615–161.8325 session range, extending a weekly gain that has seen price clear through 160.112 and the prior week's 161.804 pivot in succession. No single macro headline is driving the session, but the steady grind higher does the talking on its own.

From a trend-following lens, the setup is about as clean as it gets. Price sits above EMA20 at 161.562, EMA50 at 161.165 and EMA200 at 159.756, with the full EMA stack ordered and pointing higher. Trend is aligned up across all timeframes, RSI sits in constructive neutral territory without flashing any exhaustion signal, and volatility is calm — a regime that historically favours trend continuation over mean reversion. The analytics signal aligns with a bullish read and a 48-hour horizon. Pullbacks into the 161.56–161.56 zone, where EMA20 and prior resistance-turned-support converge, are the preferred entry for adding exposure.

We look for a sustained break above 161.845 to open the next leg. The EMA50 at 161.165 is the hard invalidation; a daily close below that level forces a full reassessment of the structural bid.