USD/JPY presses 161.70 as uptrend extends toward 161.804

USD/JPY is knocking on the door of 161.804 resistance after a week of relentless supply absorption, and the tape is giving no meaningful signals to fade.

The pair has gained over 0.9% on the week and 0.23% on the session, trading a one-day range of 161.331 to 161.7035. There is no single macro catalyst driving the move in this window; the grind is purely technical, fed by a sequence of broken levels — 160.112, 159.769 and 159.249 all surrendered over the prior sessions.

The structural read is unambiguous for a trend-follower. Price sits above EMA20 at 161.054, EMA50 at 160.658 and EMA200 at 159.320, with all three moving averages stacked in order and trend aligned up across every timeframe. Volatility is calm, meaning the move is orderly rather than reactive, and the analytics signal carries high confidence in the bullish direction. The one caution is that RSI is overbought, raising the probability of a short-term consolidation before the next leg. Overbought readings in a clean trend, however, more often mark continuation than reversal, and prior resistance levels have consistently flipped to support on pullbacks.

We look to add on dips into the 161.054–161.331 zone, targeting a clean test of 161.804. A daily close back below EMA50 at 160.658 invalidates the momentum thesis and forces a reassessment.