USD/JPY presses 161.57 with trend stack fully aligned

USD/JPY is the cleanest trending setup in the G10 space right now, and the tape is giving no indication the move is ready to stall.

The pair trades at 161.482 bid, up roughly 0.10% on the session after a weekly gain approaching 0.78%. Price has carved a tight 161.331 to 161.5695 daily range, holding most of the overnight advance heading into the Tokyo open. No discrete macro catalyst has driven the latest leg — this is a momentum-led grind, and the market is content to let it run.

The structural picture is as clean as it gets for a trend-following desk. Six prior resistance levels — including 160.112, 159.76925 and 159.24912 — have all been absorbed and converted to support over the past seven sessions. The EMA stack is ordered bullishly: EMA20 at 160.99832, EMA50 at 160.62062 and EMA200 at 159.29462 all trail below price with meaningful separation. Trend is aligned up across every monitored timeframe, RSI is firm without being at an extreme, and volatility remains calm — conditions that favour trend continuation over reversal. The single remaining overhead level is resistance at 161.804, and a clean break there opens space with no prior structure to absorb supply.

We lean long and look to add on any intraday dip into the 160.99832 EMA20 zone. A daily close below support at 160.112 would force a reassessment and invalidate the bullish structure entirely.