USD/JPY holds above 161.68 EMA20 with trend stack intact

USD/JPY is holding its ground above the EMA20 shelf, and a week-long trend of higher lows is keeping the bull case firmly intact.

The pair spent the session in a narrow 161.72 to 161.88 range, finishing the day fractionally lower at 161.75. No fresh macro catalyst drove the drift; this is consolidation within a trend rather than a reversal. The weekly gain confirms the underlying directional bias, with prior resistance levels at 161.17 and 160.11 now well behind the market following clean breaks over the past week.

The setup reads straightforwardly from a trend-following perspective. Price sits above EMA20 at 161.68, EMA50 at 161.38, and EMA200 at 160.00, with the full moving average stack ascending and well-ordered. Trend is aligned up across the 1H, 4H and 1D timeframes, RSI sits in neutral territory leaving meaningful room before momentum becomes stretched, and volatility is calm — a combination that typically favours steady continuation over mean-reversion. The immediate resistance to clear is 161.90, the lone supply level in range. A clean break above it opens the next leg with no structural obstacle nearby.

We look to buy dips into the 161.54–161.68 zone where EMA20 and the prior intraday low converge. A daily close below EMA50 at 161.38 invalidates the constructive read and warrants a reassessment.