NAS100 fades beneath 28763 as 4H downtrend holds sellers in charge

NAS100 continues to trade well below its major moving average stack, and the intraday bounce has done nothing to change the structural picture.

The index added 0.92% on the day but the range tells the honest story: price swept a low of 28227.25 before recovering to a session high of 28763.3, finishing mid-range near 28690 with offers evident at every push. There are no macro catalysts in today's window to explain the bounce, leaving it looking like short-covering rather than genuine demand rotation.

The setup favors staying short. All three EMAs — at 29057, 29486, and 29101 — sit overhead, forming a compressed resistance band that price has not approached since the prior week's 5% drawdown. The 4H trend is down, alignment across timeframes is mixed, and RSI sits in the lower neutral zone without reaching levels that typically force a meaningful squeeze. Volatility is elevated, meaning intraday swings remain wide and stop placement demands discipline. Prior levels at 28822.7 and 29027.7 have already been broken to the downside and now act as layered supply. The trend-following playbook here is clear: resistance zones offer entry, not targets.

We look to sell any intraday lift into the 28763–28823 zone. Below current levels, support at 28631.6 and 28565.1 are the first resting points, with 28420.6 the deeper floor. A sustained close above EMA20 at 29057 invalidates the call.