EUR/USD grinds below EMA20 as full downtrend stays intact

EUR/USD is carving a textbook downtrend with every timeframe in agreement and a sequence of broken supports now forming a wall of overhead supply.

The pair is fractionally higher on the session, up just 0.06% inside a 1.14547 to 1.14692 daily range — consolidation, not reversal. Over the past week price has shed just over 1%, and prior support levels including 1.15856, 1.15541 and 1.15336 have all been sequentially broken, each one flipping to resistance on any attempted bounce.

The structure could not be cleaner for a trend-following desk. Price trades below EMA20 at 1.14959, EMA50 at 1.15336 and EMA200 at 1.16206, with the full bearish stack intact and trend aligned down across every timeframe. RSI is pressing toward oversold territory but remains in a neutral state, meaning momentum still has room to run before exhaustion becomes a concern. Volatility is calm, which argues for a controlled grind lower rather than a sharp reversal. The next structural support sits at 1.14172, and with no meaningful catalyst to reverse positioning, the path of least resistance stays offered.

We lean short and sell any rally into the 1.14959 EMA20 area where the moving average converges with prior range structure. A daily close above EMA50 at 1.15336 invalidates the setup and forces a full stand-down.