EUR/USD fades below EMA20 as bearish momentum grinds

EUR/USD is in a slow bleed, and the momentum desk has no reason to fight it.

The pair is clinging to a marginal daily gain within a tight 1.15003 to 1.15208 range, yet the weekly performance tells a cleaner story: price is down over half a percent on the week. With no significant news catalyst in the window, the move is driven purely by flow and positioning as the market continues unwinding the prior bullish structure.

The setup is straightforward from a trend-following perspective. Price sits well below EMA20 at 1.1576 and EMA50 at 1.1579, both of which now act as supply. EMA200 at 1.16366 is even further overhead, confirming the broader drift. The 1H and 4H trends are both pointing down with the daily on the fence, leaving trend alignment mixed at best. RSI is pressing toward oversold territory without yet triggering a meaningful reversal signal, and volatility is calm, suggesting the grind lower has room to continue without a sharp squeeze forcing longs back in. Prior resistance at 1.15541 and 1.15856, broken during the prior week's selloff, now cap any bounces firmly.

We sell rallies into the 1.15541–1.15856 supply zone and look for a test of the 1.15008 support shelf. A daily close below 1.15008 deepens the bearish case; a reclaim above 1.1579 forces a stand-down.