AUD/CAD slides toward 0.98024 support as downtrend holds

AUD/CAD is grinding lower in a quiet, unhurried fashion that trend-following desks have learned not to dismiss.

The pair has shed more than 1% on the week, with Wednesday's session containing the price action inside a 0.98023 to 0.98273 range. No headline catalyst has driven the move; instead it reflects steady CAD resilience against an Australian dollar that has lost its near-term bid. The pair is now down on the day and pressing the lower edge of the recent range.

The structural picture reinforces the bearish lean. Price is below EMA20 at 0.98461, EMA50 at 0.98658 and EMA200 at 0.98689, and the EMA stack itself is compressed, signalling a prolonged drift rather than a sharp reversal. Trend alignment is mixed across timeframes, but the 4H remains pointed lower, which is the dominant timeframe for this setup. RSI is approaching oversold territory without being fully committed there, and volatility is calm, consistent with a slow bleed rather than a capitulation flush. Prior context shows 0.98666 was broken to the downside and is now acting as overhead supply, with the immediate support shelf sitting at 0.98024.

We lean short and sell rallies into the 0.98273 to 0.98461 zone. A daily close above EMA20 at 0.98461 invalidates the call and suggests the market is attempting to base.