AUD/CAD slides toward 0.98024 as 4H downtrend holds

AUD/CAD is grinding lower with little appetite for a bounce, the kind of tape that rewards patience from sellers and punishes premature longs.

The pair is fractionally softer on the day and has shed more than 1% over the past week, carving out a tight session range between 0.981075 and 0.98234. No high-impact news has driven the move; this is a clean technical drift lower, with a succession of prior levels above the 0.98497 cluster now broken and flipped to supply.

The setup reads bearish from a momentum lens. Price sits below EMA20 at 0.98497, EMA50 at 0.98680 and EMA200 at 0.98695, a full EMA stack turned against the bulls. The 4H trend is down, trend alignment is mixed rather than clean, and RSI is approaching oversold territory without yet showing a reversal signal. Volatility is calm, which in a down-trending regime means the slide is controlled rather than exhausted. The confluence of broken levels and a compressed range below the EMA cluster argues for continuation over a snap recovery.

We look to sell rallies into the 0.98234–0.98497 zone, where the day's high and EMA20 converge as natural supply. First target is the 0.98024 support shelf; below that, 0.97692 opens up. A daily close above 0.98497 invalidates the call and suggests the market has found a genuine bid.