AUD/CAD slides toward 0.97455 as bearish trend holds firm

AUD/CAD is grinding lower beneath every major moving average as sellers maintain full control of the short-term tape.

The pair has shed over 1.6% on the week and currently bids at 0.97558, holding within a narrow intraday range of 0.97464 to 0.97612. No fresh macro catalyst has arrived in this window, but the absence of a bid is itself a signal — prior resistance at 0.98026, 0.98335, and 0.98666 all broke cleanly over the prior sessions, and supply continues to cap any recovery attempt.

The setup remains structurally bearish from a momentum standpoint. Price trades well below EMA20 at 0.98073, EMA50 at 0.98443, and EMA200 at 0.98512, with the full EMA stack stacked against any bull case. Trend is aligned lower across 1H and 4H timeframes, though the daily has softened to neutral — a nuance worth watching. RSI is firmly in oversold territory, which argues for caution on fresh shorts at these levels, yet in sustained downtrends oversold can remain oversold for longer than many expect. Volatility is running at a normal clip, meaning the trend is grinding rather than collapsing, which favours patient sellers over aggressive ones.

We lean short and look to sell any intraday rallies capped by the 0.97455 to 0.98026 resistance corridor. The next downside reference sits at 0.97455 support, with 0.97221 below that. A daily close back above EMA20 at 0.98073 invalidates the bearish thesis and forces a full reassessment.