AUD/CAD grinds above 0.98264 support as 1H trend holds up

AUD/CAD is threading the needle between a constructive weekly trend and a tape that refuses to extend convincingly — a setup that rewards patience over aggression.

The pair is off 0.17% on the session and has traded inside a 0.98248 to 0.98515 daily range with no fresh macro catalyst to drive directional flow. The prior week delivered a solid 0.147% gain, and price has successfully absorbed several key broken resistance levels that now serve as structural support beneath current trade.

The trend-following read is cautiously constructive but not without reservation. The 1H trend remains up, providing the nearest momentum read, while 4H and daily are mixed — the tape is consolidating rather than rolling over. EMA20 at 0.98081 sits well below the current bid, indicating the near-term base has shifted higher. However, EMA50 at 0.98348 sits directly overhead and has yet to be reclaimed cleanly, while EMA200 at 0.98513 anchors the larger structural picture above. RSI is neutral and volatility is normal, suggesting no squeeze or capitulation is imminent. We lean long on dips into the 0.98264–0.98275 demand pocket where support and current bid converge, building a base for a test of 0.98515 and ultimately 0.98666.

We buy shallow pullbacks into the 0.98264 support zone. A daily close below 0.98024 invalidates the bullish bias and signals a more meaningful retracement is underway.